No wonder people are starting to walk out. I'll say it again, they will keep telling you "next week" until it happens or it flops. So take any guidance with a very large pinch of salt. Clearly the pilots start date has already been moved a long way, and I cannot believe Air China gives a stuff about delaying you further, or the launch date.
If it does cave in, I suspect the aircraft will be offered to Air Macau, who will reject them - if only because NX has a CEO that only cares about developing cargo and maintaining the Taiwan-China route (witness how much he has done over 4 years in the world's fastest growing economy).
Which means if you are typed I would personally call or email or visit NX DFO Capt Du to get ahead of the queue. Upgrades are going on, and rumours abound that upto 20 pilots will go in the new year. If you are not rated however, this could become painful if it does indeed cave in.
Hailer - some answers. As someone who has been here some time, I can guarantee you money is of little object to Air Macau or Air China - take a close look at the operations of both. Its about not losing money, rather than making it.
And the rationale for the airline is simple - its a conflict of interests:
- Air Macau: must be seen by the local politicians to be adding more destinations and frequencies (in line with the economy), or it face losing its monopoly. But it doesnt want the losses (they dont want to hurt their own mgmt bonuses) so it has created a start up JV to fly the routes that cant make money
- Local magnate Stanley Ho: wants more destinations and frequencies to China, to bring Chinese punters in to fill his casinos and hotels
- Beijing: is worried that Stanley would be successful. Gaming advertising is already banned on the mainland due to problem of corrupt local officials money laundering here. So Beijing is in control, but does not want flights to the mainland (oops, shouldnt have announced those MAX). And now it will want some face/respect back too, so the bureaucratic machine will slow to an appropriate speed to remind people who is in control.
- MAX mgmt: has been unbelieveably stupid and took a very blase approach, and has upset everyone by declaring destinations that NX and Beijing clearly dont want them to have, before speaking to them.
Which leaves you with a senior mgmt team that probably has to go (but wasnt it good pay while it lasted boys?), aircraft that are coming too quickly for the politics to be resolved, and if it survives, an airline with aircraft that can only compete on existing LCC non-China routes, where it cant make money.
I really hope for all concerned that this gets resolved in 2 weeks, but I have been around for too long to be anything other than cynical. 2 weeks is the blink of an eye for people who rock up late to work, have a long lunch and nap, and knock off early - and do FA at their desks.