punkalouver,
bsieker and joernstu and I work together. They have put a considerable effort into analysing the Überlingen collision, amongst other accidents, so you are discussing with people who understand these situations very well.
Your recent postings support my earlier suggestion that you have not understood the decision problem. Here is the reason.
I suggested a consequence of your point of view, namely that you could be involved in a collision. You replied in a way that suggested that you think it is not possible under the conditions described (at least, that is what you say).
Well, such a view is obviously mistaken. It is obviously possible that you could collide in such a situation, even to people to whom TCAS is the best thing since sliced bread.
Let me attribute to you some insight, and assume you agree that it is possible that you might collide. Then you must think it is extremely unlikely. So in that case I would ask you to show your reasoning for this unlikelihood.
What you have said so far shows that you think it unlikely that you would ever come in such a situation. OK, but you were asked to judge, not the absolute probability of being in that situation, but the conditional probability *given the situation described*, for that is the judgement on which a rational decision is based. And the conditional likelihood can be a very different quantity.
For example, the absolute probability that I will be hit head-on by a car at a closing speed of over 30 kph while riding my bicycle is (I hope!) low. However, the conditional probability that I will be hit head-on by a car at a closing speed of 30 kph given the situation that a drunken driver has veered to my side of the road while going at 50 kph and I am 20 m from his front fender is rather high.
I think the very best you could do, if you wish to persuade people about the rationality of always following the RA, is to engage this and other decision problems that might be presented to you, and persuade those who are sceptical (such as I am, and bsieker and joernstu are) that following the RA is the best solution in each and every one of those situations. Personally, I doubt you can do that. But it may be well worth a try, to see where it succeeds and where it fails.
PBL