FullWings,
I notice that you still haven't addressed my main point:
Why is my modified scenario so different from Ueberlingen that it can be discounted as "extremely unlikely"?
The only reason I can imagine for your reluctance to address it is that you feel Ueberlingen was a fluke, it is considered that low "acceptable risk", and nothing needs to be done about it.
Is that it?
Bernd