This will be only the first order for the A380. You can expect a follow-on and an eventual A380 market in BA for in excess of 35, along with a large fleet of B777 and retiring 747-400, with limited use of B787 on thin medium/long routes much as the B767 does now. But that does it, there is no room for another type. Is it the turning point for the A380? No- it is on a long steady climb. The eventual market for it will be 1000+ up to 1500. It will be the new premiere fleet for large airlines (to show they are big and have arrived). Therefore multiply average fleets of at least 20 by the number of airlines that will have to have them, and you can arrive at a reasonable assessment. It will be a winner because it has no long term competition in the capacity stakes. It has had a difficult gestation, but show me a large aircraft program that hasn't! It will not be long before the stretched A380 is announced- just look at that design, it is begging for it.
Frankly I am surprised at the shere short sightedness of the number here who have denigrated it and assumed there was no room for it in the future, and predicted failure. I have seen it all before with the original 747 when overnight doubling of capacity was looked on as ridiculous. People then couldn't envisage the effect it would have. It nearly destroyed Boeing, then went on to become an amazing money spinner. I like the 747, I flew 3 models over 18 years, but great though it is, it is not the equipment for the next 40-50 years too. That would take it up to 80 years since that shape hit the sky!
Last edited by Rainboe; 30th Sep 2007 at 19:01.