Beaver diver;
OK, could someone please explain to me after the 10 pages of blog what exactly happened?
You can run through the thread and put together what is known about the approach so far and you can examine the available photographs and various videos also available including a helicopter-view of the crash site taken on the day after the accident.
Along with examining the DFDR and CVR in Washington, this is what investigators will be doing, in part.
I know that you're asking for a "summary" and "probable cause" but in this case, unlike the TAM accident, there is little straightforward information/data to go on and so there is no basis upon which to make a summary at the moment.
We still do not know whether this was the first, second or third approach for this aircraft. I have read alternating reports on whether the gear was down or up. We don't know how low the aircraft was before going around and we don't know the speeds, the slat/flap settings or the pitch attitude. We dont' know what engine power was being developed nor do we know the angle of attack during the go-around phase and final descent. The information on all this including any information from ATC units who witnessed the accident (and which would be invaluable in putting together the accident sequence) is sparse indeed and what is available must all be treated as unreliable or at best, spotty.
From the photos we know that from the wreckage distribution there was not high forward speed, (in the order of approach speeds or possibly slightly less) and, relatively speaking, not high vertical speed on impact, (I'm comparing the wreckage pattern of the A300 in Nagoya and the BA111 super-stall wreckage pattern decades ago, both with high disintegration patterns but in relatively concentrated areas).
The question of how many died from post-impact smoke/fire and inability to egress as opposed to dying from initial impact forces is one which will assist in understanding the accident sequence once control was lost. The cabin structure was compromised but was still in two large sections, possibly making egress easier, (although we don't know the actual compromise of the cabin area which may be, though concentrated, still severe).
PJ2
PS; thanks md80forum - I didnt' realize it was approach #2 but haven't been following this as closely as the TAM thread. I concur with the comment regarding "stall" as the wreckage pattern shows all the standard characteristics of same but we don't have the data yet of course. I remain unconvinced that the weather played a pivotal role (as in the weather made the accident a near-inevitability) but will reserve judgement in favour of curiosity.