Pretty paint, anyway
Pretty paint on these aircraft, at least.
I see a slow slide towards war . . . the rhetoric gets more and more
antagonistic as the weeks go by, everyone's "position" is hardening,
nobody is saying "hey, you know, guys, we're not actually looking for a
fight here", just boasting about how they're so gonna whup the other
guy's ass when the fight arrives.
Push comes to shove (and it looks more and more like it is coming), Iran
is going to lose this war, big time. Remember that during the Iran-Iraq
war, they fought each other bitterly for ten years, tooth and nail,
horrendous casualties on both sides, and basically came out with a draw,
no winners. In fact, both lost.
When the US invaded Iraq, one of the protagonists in the ten year war
above, it was over in less than a month. (While the US absolutely won
the war, we have not been particularly good at winning the peace - but
that is another topic for later.)
Logically, then, if Iran and Iraq were fairly evenly matched, and we
demolished one of them in under a month, why should we expect the
remaining one to be a much more formidable foe?
The answer is that they are not. They are doing a LOT of yelling and
screaming about how tough they are, but you may recall the last country
in the area which did exactly the same thing (WMD anyone?) and what
happened to them.
Further, while Dubya had some work to do in drumming up war fever
against Iraq, here in the US we have a grudge to settle with the mullahs
in Iran - we remember the 444 day hostage crisis, and how Khomeni (may
he rot in hell) suddenly released the captives just as Ronald Reagan was
sworn in as president - and Ronald Reagan said he intended to free our
people in Tehran and he was ready to send the Marines RIGHT NOW to go do
it, and also the Army, the Navy, and also the entire Air Force, carrying
however many megatons as might be needed to get the job done . . .
Clearly understanding that Reagan meant what he was saying, and clearly
understanding that the entire USA was behind Reagan (because we elected
him based on what he promised to do), the mullahs made a very sane
choice (for once), and promptly released the captives, who were on an
airplane and in the air as Reagan was being sworn in.
Here's what I see - if we do go to war against Iran, we'll be going with
a score to settle. Iran should not make the mistake of believing their
own propaganda about how tough they are - the evidence says otherwise.
If nothing else, go to Wikipedia and compare the amount of military
equipment available to the US and to Iran. Not only is the US arsenal
overwhelmingly bigger, it is also overwhelmingly better, and has much
greater flexibility.
If there is a war, the initial phase - the destruction of Iran's
military potential - will be over very, very quickly. Unfortunately,
long after Iran's pretty airplanes are smoking holes in the desert, the
fighting on the ground will be going on and on and on, and it will be
just like Iraq is now, except more and bigger and longer and bloodier.
Again, no winners, just losers, although more than a few countries in
the area will be very glad indeed that the USA has done their dirty work
for them (again).
The key here is two fold.
One, we need to get Dubya's guys to start to talk to the Iranians.
Talking to your enemies reduces the chances that you might have to fight
them - because even if your victory is a sure thing, it is greatly
preferable not to have to fight at all.
Two, the Iranians need to realize that all their bravado is frightening
their neighbors and convincing them that Iran has serious military plans
for the area (even if it is really just noise in self defense), and that
pushes these neighbors closer to the one REAL threat that Iran faces,
and that is the US, which is not in the least afraid of Iran, and which
secretly hopes Iran does start something so we can "get even" for the
embassy hostage episode.
In point of fact, Iran has no serious military competitors in the area.
Israel is not interested (and is not able) to invade Iran. Any potential
air strike against Iranian nuclear facilities would be out of fear
(pronounced "self defense") that Iran is developing a nuclear bomb, and
they have said that they intend to destroy Israel. Much of this noise is
for internal consumption (to distract the Iranians from the incompetence
of their own government and the sad state of their economy), but if
someone were threatening me, I'd take whatever precautions were
necessary BEFORE I found out if they were serious or "just kidding" -
afterward is too late when you are talking about nuclear weapons.
Iran is (allegedly) building a bomb because it will (allegedly) make
them safe from attack - in fact, the achievement of the bomb guarantees
that they WILL be attacked. Unfortunately, everyone involved (both
sides) is not making that connection.
The logic should be "If you don't build a bomb, we'd have no reason or
intent to attack you, so you won't need to build a bomb in the first place."
Save everyone a lot of trouble.
Best Regards,
Echo Mike