Nige
Nice as it may sound I don't think there is any intention to develop any tasty retention packages. The 100K pre-tax for sqn ldr pilots has obviously not had much success if the 87% figure is genuine. At the end of the day you can always promote to fill the gaps and ignore the reduction in experience. Recruitment doesn't seem a problem so provided the sausage machine keeps producing keen youngsters to man the front line .... And of course the retention problem is not just seen as an aircrew problem.
As unlikely as it may seem to some there will always be those who wish to stay in for a full career - as long as that is enough to fufill the sqn cdr and stn cdr appointments, regardless (dare I suggest) of the quality then robert is your mothers brother. By then, hopefully in the MODs view, the boarding school "handcuffs" will kick in and the problem goes away. Now if boarding school allowance/CEA was to be removed in the next few years ....
Failing that perhaps a reduction in the front line to meet the real world availability of aircrew may be in the pipeline.
Personally I don't think it will be long before we routinely see non-aircrew stn cdrs at flying units and AOC 1 Gp / ACAS / CAS et al having nothing but medals above their left breast! Whether that is a good thing or a bad thing ...