I do not want to make this a personnel attach on an individual.
Aircraft, everything you have said is both right and wrong.
Yes some companies will go out of business over the next 2 years as all come to terms with the new environment. But only those companies who cannot manage "Change Management"!
The interesting point here is just because a company goes out of business does not mean that others will fill the void.
The pilots will move on to other companies, not just one company. This only happens in a take over.
The other companies that want to fill in the void have their own crewing problems and will not be able to take up the slack.
We do not need ANY COMPAINES pulling down the sign!
And yes I am in management and have been for over 11 years.
The last mining tender I was involved with (6 weeks ago), the mine asked how we where going to crew it as they are very aware of the crewing problems in the industry. What they are after is a strategy that sees their tender continue for the duration, not a cheep price and the tenderer cannot fulfill his promise.
Just because the first major increase happened in the West does not mean it will not effect the whole industry. This is a global industry!
Governments, both state and federal have to come to terms with this and change their policies for the industry, that is the regional industry. All political parties have a policy of keeping the bush viable, and aviation is a vital part of that policy. Governments will have to dig deep as well, not just subsidies, but tax reform etc.
Everyone has to change their thinking on Aviation, Governments, CASA, Companies, Unions and Pilots if the industry is to stay an industry. The fall out is much higher wages for pilots, especially Captains.
Companies will pay much higher wages but there needs to be a trade off as well.
This will be in the form of allowances, seniorority etc.
If they pay $150K pa for a Captain, Metro, Dash, B1900 whatever, they will also not want to have the added expense of working out early starts, late finishes, roster changes etc.
We have to expect that if we are paid that amount, they have the right to work us to the CAO, and they will want the best pilot for the job, not the next pilot on the seniority list!
We will get roster changes and it will not be the companies fault that this occurs, so if we get this type on money, we will have to work for it. You always have to choice to leave.
Gee the company did not give me 24 hours notice to a roster change so they owe me $200. Get over it, this is what will send companies broke, not $150K pa as the incidentals cannot be budgeted accurately.
This will be the reality of aviation for the foreseeable future.
Niles