Aviation Crystal Ball
My take on the industry due entirely to the Pilot Shortage!
The Big Boys:
Early December Virgin, QF and PornStar will start cancelling flights. They will book everyone over xmas and take their money, then stuff everyone around over xmas.
This will lead into next year with cancellations a dailly event (yield management).
From about March you will start to see the Business Class seats increase to keep the yeild up on the reduced number of flights. Eventually City Flyer will be business class only!
Wages will go up to try and stop the flood to the sand pit! Captains will probably go to $400K
The Litlle Boys:
Pilot wages have already started to rise. Companies have 2 choices.
1. Go broke due to no crew.
2. Pay the market rate for Pilots.
Now this is where it gets interesting. Up until now Pilot pay rates have been based on Aircraft Size. Small Aircraft = Small Salary, Large Aircraft = Large Salary.
Market Rates will be Captain or F/O regardless of aircraft size.
By next June a Line Captain on any pressurised 2 crew aircraft will be paid $150K plus super. F/O's will be about $70K plus super.
It will be up to the management of all the regionals to adjust their thinking, pricing structure and attitude to stay in business.
The real competition for Pilots is now the Big Boys and Pilots will for the first time since WW2 make choices based on everything other than Pay Scale.
Every regional now has serious crewing problems and current management thinking is to up the pay scale to poach crews from other regionals.
This will not work as the pay has to compete with airlines or most will still take the Jet Job!
All that is required is 100 to stay in the regional environment and not go to the Big Boys.
Casual Captains
By June next year the number of freelance Captains will increase.
Most will be 2 weeks on 2 weeks off, fully found with travel and a daily rate of between $1000 and $1500 for T & C Captains. ie $180K to $270K
CASA
CASA now has a serious problem with low houred crew becoming Captains and the number of Captains flying the same type for different companies.
CASA and the companies now have to get together and standardise SOP's for the same type. Part 119 by CAO!
Interesting times ahead.
Call me an idiot, but I see no other way for the industry to stay an industry.
Niles