If you are really saying there are as many, or more, instances under TCAS version 7 where pilots’ instincts were right and the TCAS wrong, then we had all better stop flying right away.
It is axiomatic that with no TCAS, there would have been no collision. Equally, however, if there had been no ATC, and TCAS only, there would have been no collision. This is my point about demarcation – mix up the boundaries and you court disaster.
I suppose I reacted at first against some of what you were saying because it was by no means clear to me that you were using Ueberlingen as template onto which to put speculative scenarios. Now I see that, this debate becomes less interesting to me. You can call it simplistic, but I am in favour of preventing recurrences of that tragedy, and I don’t see how “decision-theoretics” are helping.
My bottom line, on which I will sign out on this palaver, is simply that you should not go around saying it is unwise to advise pilots always to follow the RA. If pilots fly contrary to the RAs, then TCAS becomes the cause of collisions and completely useless.