At the risk of being SLF answering SLF, and basing my answer on stuff I've read, physics I've been taught, plus some experience playing with home-made EHT generators... (in other words, zero appropriate actual experience!)
Electrical discharges to or from a conductor (lightning is either from a charged area to a conductor, which is the case with ground strikes, or from area to area, which is what happens with lightning within clouds) favour the area with the highest potential gradient. That often equates to pointy bits. Aircraft attract lightning when they fly into a zone where a strike is imminent, because (among other factors) they offer a conductive shortcut which pushes local conditions just past the trigger point. The biggest potential difference is normally across the airframe, nose to tail, because that short-circuits the biggest distance, and because those bits are reasonably pointy it enhances the chance that lightning will take that path.
There are plenty of exceptions to that. Lightning may be predictable in the general case, but it's extremely weird strike by strike.
So; yes, it will tend to hit (or exit via) the nose. No, that's not a hard and fast rule. And I am, at best, an enthusiastic amateur in these matters who has utter faith in Faraday cages (although Apollo 12 remains perhaps the most extreme test of such matters).
R