Nil, a mate of mine has advised that the number of external CNs is likely to be close to 25 - similar to your estimate.
I have friends in EK and in
VB. Why do they want to swap?
Nowadays people take the first job going. Sometimes you have to work for someone to find out that it wasn't right for you.
EK people after many years there want to come home. So
VB looks appealing. A mate says the discontent in the sandpit is quite low historically, but then 17% payrises will do that;-)
VB people work hard, have the prospect of external guys taking 777 commands and are sick of paying aussie tax. So of course EK looks appealing - quick commands and no tax.
Makes sense to me. There is no 'one size fits all' airline. CX is good if you want to commute to oz - mind you, EK is rapidly increasing services so commuting is do-able, but not easy. EK is great vs CX if you want to be close to EUR. If command is your priority then obviously EK is streets ahead of CX. If 1st world protection and stable career is your priority then maybe QF is the go.
Over 15 years ago, a friend said to me that you never hear of anyone leaving CX to join another airline but you hear of lots of people leaving other airlines to join CX. That friend left CX and went to join QF over a decade ago;-) How things change!