There are no guesses on when baggage misses the change or does not. However, the greatest single factor is time. If the transfer time is too short, then the risk goes up. Equally, if the transfer time is too long (12 hours) then the bags can also get left on the sides. This goes for ANY airport. But the usual reason is having your arrival and departure time too close together. If you are in C, then you will be able to use the lounge to wait.