Doing Nothing?
Our contract already has mechanisms in place for the company to offer RA65 and DEFO positions - bypass pay. Unfortunately for CX though, every pilot they extend will incure bypass pay for an FO REGARDLESS of where he lives so based FOs will be partially recompensed for the delay to command.
DEFOs have already been recruited - about 20 so far. I believe for the last few years new joiners sign a "I will fly the freighter if asked" clause so there is no reason that I can see why the DEFOs can't be forced to fly pax and freight no matter their salary.
A scales weren't offered out of generosity. CX must see the need from a legislative need or an expansion need (less likely IMO). So presumably in due course A scales will be offered - don't hold your breath waiting though.
The 'up to 3 year' delay to command I often quote is dependant on uninterrupted expansion. Any SARS, 9-11, Asian Contagion or other worldwide economic downturn will exacerbate the delays. Why?
OK, here goes - time to let loose on numbers. Over the next 10 years approximately half of the commands needed were to replace retirees. So IF(?) all pilots stayed till 65, then we have just removed the requirement of any commands at all for retirees. We will need about 60 new CNs a year for expansion at current growth rate. We would need over 110 per year to replace retirees and cover expansion. So if growth rate halves, we need about new 30CNs a year. With 1350 FO and SOs how does that make command time look!
Realistically, I expect that most guys will extend a little and some a lot so probably close to 100% retention until about 60. On what basis do I state this....none, just my observation of people near 55 'just needing a little more'. How else can you explain people accepting C scale extensions at this time. There are 40+ on extension versus probably 60-80 that have had the chance to retire over the last 12-18months. Offer them A scales and lets see how many stay!
So I think it is fair to say that in my 'command delay' model, it is sound to assume 100% retention to say 60th birthday and then maybe 0% after that. That will allow for some extending 10 years and some extending not at all. So the biggest impact will be felt over the next 5 years -2008-2012.
I don't believe there is a lot of pressure on the company right now. Thats just my opinion though. I think it will take people leaving/not joining to put pressure on salaries. Again, just my personal opinion.
Clear as opaque glass?