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Old 7th August 2007 | 13:44
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Numero Crunchero
 
Joined: Oct 2006
Posts: 651
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From: Hong Kong
According to CX they are due for delivery in 2011.

On the thread "Cathay Pacific CoS - URGENT ACTION REQUIRED" I did some projections of time to command in different growth scenarios.

In 2011 I had us receiving between 4-12 a/c. 4 a/c equates to a low growth period like 1993-2000(7 years). The long term growth rate would require 9 a/c, and the high growth scenario requires 12. So no, the 5 a/c currently ordered for 2011 currently has no material effect on planned upgrades.

Assuming they order at least 4 a/c for 2010 ( I assumed in that post that all a/c for 2009 onwards(11) were delivered in 2009), then command time will be less than the 15 1/2 - 20 1/2 year range predicted from the low growth rate scenario. If everyone left at 55 it would be 15 1/2 - if everyone stays till 65 it will be 20 1/2 years to command.

To achieve approx 12 years to command for new joiners(RA65 included) we need to be getting 9 a/c in each of 2010 and 2011. Since we have ordered 5 for 2011, we now only need 13 more for 2010/11 to keep the long term growth rate going and keep command time 1 year quicker than QF!

I used to be an optimist but there are just too many clouds around these silver linings!
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