Delays to command
For the sake of argument, lets assume the letter above is accurate.
Lets work out time to command for a SO who joins today.
Assumptions.
100% retention of 55+ old captains - realistic? Well, it is A scales for all but a handful of older B scale guys. So I think it might be reasonable in the short run. If you were on a base getting A scale you might stay on a few years more.
100% pass rate for upgrades.
Growth rate of last 5 years(1/1/02-31/12/06) of 6.4%(based on a/c numbers at year end) continues after 2009. We are due to receive 10 a/c in 2007, 11 in 2008 and 11 from 2009 onwards. I have assumed we receive all 11 in 2009. I have assumed return of 3 A346's next year.
Retirement Age 55, time to command for new joiner is 10 1/2 years.
Retirement Age 65 introduced just after he joins, time to command is now 13 1/2 years.
Change one assumption.
If the growth rate matches the period 1993-2000 ( 7 years including the asian contagion), from 2010 onwards;
time to command with retirement age 55 is 15 1/2 years. If using Retirement Age 65(100% retention) the time slips out to 20 1/2 years
Change another assumption - 50% retention - that could be 100% retention to 60 then everyone leaves or an average of 50% of CNs remaining until 65.
6.4% growth rate(2010 onwards), Using RA65 it becomes 12 1/2 years.
Using the 1993-2000 growth rate(2010onwards) it will take 15 1/2 years.
Summary
RA55
6.4% rate - 10 1/2, 2.7% - 15 1/2
RA65
6.4% rate - 13 1/2, 2.7% - 20 1/2
RA65(50% leave at 55)
6.4% rate - 13, 2.7% - 17 1/2years.
So the number that remain has a big effect on the delay - the delay could be as little as 2 1/2years or as much as 5 years.
The 1993-2000 figures are low due to Kai Tak constraints and Asian Contagion. The 18 year average growth rate has been around 6.4% the growth rate for 2007-2009 is very high at 8.7%. If that rate continues a new joiner would get his command in 9 1/2 years RA55, or 12 years with RA65.
In terms of aircraft numbers: end of 2009 131 a/c(according to 2006 annual report).
Low growth - 2.7% from 2010 onwards - 2017 162 aircraft,
Long term rate -6.35% from 2010 - 2017 214 aircraft
Recent rate(07-09) 8.7% from 2010 - 2017 255 aircraft.
To not have any delay to command growth rate has to be in excess of 10% from 2010 onwards - aircraft in 2017 - 281.
Clear as mud?