Ah 404, I miss our cockpit conversations;-) Most people would have been bored by what we talked about, but I loved it;-)
Anyway, one thing I can add to 404's erudite exposition on exchange rates. A study was done a while ago to see how accurate 1 year predictions of exchange rates, specifically the AUD. On more than 50% of occasions the ACTUAL exchange rate was outside the band of predicted values. In other words, the experts had it wrong more often than right.
So, take what you read about predictions with a grain of salt. This applies to share market and real estate. How many times do you read that property is going up 20% next year to then find out it went up 5% or down.
If the 'experts' were so good, they wouldn't need to charge a commission. Their profit is guaranteed - yours isn't!