"The reality is that when airlines are short of pilots they may be tempted to roster their pilots up to the maximum flight time allowed by regulations," Ewers said. "Naturally, fatigue may then become an element."
Pilot shortage may be affecting flight safety
By Slobodan Lekic
The Associated Press
BRUSSELS, Belgium — As the Garuda Indonesia Boeing 737 approached Yogyakarta's main airport, veteran Capt. Marwoto Komar instructed his rookie co-pilot to extend the flaps to slow the plane for landing.
Seconds later, the Boeing slammed into the runway at double the normal landing speed, careened into a rice paddy and caught fire — killing 21 people. Initial findings from the probe into the March 7 crash suggest a misunderstanding between the pilot and his first officer may have contributed to the crash.
Analysts say such apparent miscues are a troubling sign that a worldwide shortage of experienced pilots is starting to affect flight safety.
The shortage is the result of extraordinary air traffic growth in the Persian Gulf, China and India; the rise of lucrative low-cost carriers in Europe and Asia; and the sustained recovery of the U.S. airlines from the industry recession caused by the Sept. 11 attacks.
"There is a giant sucking sound, luring pilots to rapidly expanding airlines such as Emirates and Qatar and the budget carriers," said William Voss, head of the Flight Safety Foundation. When experienced pilots leave developing countries in Asia and Africa for the Gulf, those countries must hire replacements fresh out of flight school, he said.
And poaching of pilots and mechanics is expected to intensify as Asian markets like China and India burgeon.
Around Asia, flyers from national airlines such as Garuda have deserted for better paying jobs with new and successful budget carriers, such as Malaysia's AirAsia. In Europe, Belgium's largest carrier Brussels Airlines recently complained of losing an average of 10 captains a month to pilot-hungry airlines in the Gulf, and have requested government intervention.
In the United States, where thousands of veterans were laid off after Sept. 11 and left the industry, regional carriers have been giving jobs to first officers with considerably less experience than would have been required 15 years ago.
At some airlines, such as Northwest Airlines, pilot shortages have led to record-breaking flight cancellations in recent months. In the last full week of June, it canceled about 1,200 flights, or about 12 percent of its flight schedule, because it could not provide sufficient pilots to replace those who were grounded after reaching maximum allowed hours.
After that, the airline said it would continue recalling all of its furloughed pilots and hire additional pilots.
Figures released by International Air Transport Association show that global air travel will likely grow 4 to 5 percent a year over the next decade, though the aviation boom in India and China is expected to exceed 7 percent.
The Persian Gulf, the fastest growing region for both passengers and cargo, registered growth of 15.4 and 16.1 percent respectively in 2006. Reflecting this expansion, in the first half of this year Boeing and Airbus received a joint total of 1,100 new orders.
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"Airlines such as Emirates, Qatar or Etihad are getting a new Airbus 330 or Boeing 777 each month, which means they also need to take in pilots at a phenomenal rate," said Gideon Ewers, a spokesman for the London-based, 105,000-member International Association of Airline Pilots Associations (IFALPA).
India and China alone will need about 4,000 new pilots a year to cope with their growth — the same number now employed by Germany's Lufthansa. Airlines need 30 highly trained pilots available on average for each long-haul aircraft in their fleet, or 10 to 18 for short-haul planes.
Traditionally, new pilots come up through flight training academies with a strict regimen of classroom training and 50 to 60 hours flying for a Private Pilots License. It takes another 250 hours flying plus a battery of tests for a Commercial Pilots License, which allows the pilot to fly on instruments, rather than only visually, and on airliners with more than one engine. A total of 1,500 hours of flight time are required for a license to co-pilot a commercial jet.
According to the latest available figures, there are 1.2 million pilots worldwide, but just 14 percent have the professional Airline Transport Pilots License.
Paradoxically, flight schools now complain they are understaffed as instructors get hired by regional carriers who have lost pilots to expanding airlines.
In an effort to retain experienced pilots, aviation authorities in some nations — including the United States — are considering extending the mandatory retirement age from 60 to 65 years.
"It makes no sense to force experienced, qualified and healthy pilots to retire while airlines are scrambling to fill those seats," Voss said.
Other airlines and government regulators plan to moderate their standards, allowing new graduates to co-pilot with experienced captains. But this places greater stress on the command pilot who must fly multiple segments while monitoring a copilot's performance.
"The reality is that when airlines are short of pilots they may be tempted to roster their pilots up to the maximum flight time allowed by regulations," Ewers said. "Naturally, fatigue may then become an element."
The London-based International Airline Passengers Association said in a statement it cannot tolerate lowering safety standards and is campaigning for global safety regulation so all airlines meet the same criteria.
The critical shortfall has led the Montreal-based International Civil Aviation Organization to introduce a shortcut — the Multi-Crew Pilot License — where a trainee, supervised by a pilot and co-pilot, will fly a wide-bodied jet within 45 weeks, about what it takes to obtain a driving license in most European countries.
Some pilots' associations have expressed concern that such quick-fix training schemes, where candidates don't accrue any solo flying, ignore the broader safety issues.
"Although all airline pilots are trained to the same standards ... there are certain intangibles that only come from experience," said Patrick Smith, a U.S.-based airline pilot and aviation writer. "The idea of some kid flying a 737 around Africa with 300 hours of total time is a bit scary."
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