I know the old axiom is "I would rather be real lucky than just good" but one does not plan on luck being the prime factor in a successful aviation career.
Again, we can rewrite the equation with unknowns but again, rational people do not knowingly make irrational decisions. People do not make mistakes on purpose. That is not a 'mistake' but rather a 'violation'. I have never heard in the cockpit, "Hey guys.. this is real stupid and dangerous but here goes." And the crew says, "Sure, let's try it."
Yes, people do act with insufficient information and I have heard more than one 'experience is what you get when you were expecting something else."
Here in the we have a number of paradox airports such as LGA and DCA where you do not have overruns, do not have long runways and have very complex weather systems which produce fog, snow and other significant 'threats', to use the jargon. The paradox is that since the margins are already reduced by the very physical nature of the airport and environment, most of the guys I know and flew with adopted a very tight attitude as to what was acceptable and what was not. Thus, it was the pilot that compensated for a less than stellar facility. Thus, also, the airport was not 'clearly dangerous'. Challenging maybe but not 'clearly dangerous'.