Hi!
Introduction:
There is a pilot shortage worldwide, and it is getting worse on a monthly basis. Currently, the US is the only place (maybe a few excess pilots in Australia) with some excess pilots.
Boeing says that, worldwide, 19,000 airline pilots are needed a year for the next 20 years. They are setting up an alternative training program to get guys up to speed faster and cheaper.
Last year, virtually EVERY jet manufacturer worldwide had their best order year ever. And, 2005 WAS their best year ever, until they surpassed it in 2006. The US is seeing multitudes of VLJs coming on line starting this year, also. Worldwide, the projection for airline travel is going up dramatically. Much of this growth is from India and China.
Europe already has an Age 70 committee working, and they will ease the requirements for a commercial pilot, as the are getting so short.
India needs 11,000 airline pilots in the next 3 years. Last year they produced 150. China needs 9,000 airline pilots the next 3 years. They produce 1,000 per year.
Emirates needs 400 pilots by the end of this year. They told my buddy he is qualified to get a -777 Captain job with them. He has NO widebody experience, NO heavy experience, and NO oceanic experience. Previously, you needed to have a type rating and time in type to get a Captain job at Emirates.
Cathay is parking one or more freighters because they don't have enough pilots.
The contract agencies are going crazy trying to find pilots to fill the slots that they are allotted. They used to have lots of qualified applicants on file. Now they have very few, and the applicants they do have are telling the contract agencies that the jobs don't pay enough.
US Airlines already have plans in place to begin Ab-Initio (like air forces do, or Euro/Asian carriers where the carrrier pays for everything) training when needed (not if).
US Regionals:
The regionals are having MASSIVE problems getting enough guys. Unfortunately, you have to have Green Card or the right to work here already.
They are hiring EVERY 500 hour TT pilot in the country. Next will be the race for the Commercial/Multi/Instrument 200 hour pilots. There is a MASSIVE shortage of instructors-some flight schools have shut down, or are turning away students. No need to instruct when you can get an airline job.
They are paying new-hires bonuses of up to $5,000 USD. Many are paying their current pilots bonuses if they find new hires.
They are cancelling whole banks of flights. Many of them have also contracted for new feed service with more airplanes soon, and have found they can't even cover the flying the have now.
The regionals virtually ALL pay in training, pay for your lodging, perdiem, and give you jumpseat and/or pass privileges to fly home on the weekends. It used to be the worst ones didn't, but they have to now.
Pinnacle, Trans States, PSA (a USAir feeder) and USA Jet (where I work) have NO hourly minimums right now (we used to be 2000/1000, now we're Commercial/Multi/Instrument).
Almost all of the regionals don't have interview or class dates now. They'll either interview and hire over the phone, or they'll interview the candidates whenever they can make it in. Many of them run a new-hire class EVERY Monday, and take whoever shows up. We were trying to get 2000/1000/1 year of crew experience guys in to go directly to a DC-9 and we'ver gotten 1 so far, after trying for 3 months.
One of our competitors (we're on-demand freight and charter PAX) needed pilots bad and didn't even get a RESUME for 3 months, much less anyone in to interview.
Regionals have held classes of 25-30, and only 5-10 guys show up. At Trans States, Dec 2006, you needed 4000 TT to upgrade. Now it's 2000. Pinnacle only hires FOs, but the qualified ones bid for Captain on day one, and are awarded the bid while still in their first week with the company.
Pinnacle has contacted every pilot that was every scheduled to interview with them, and didn't, or turned the job down, and asked them to start class. They've even contacted everyone that has left and asked them if they wanted to return!
Our Director of Recruiting gets constantly asked to start class at a regional, and he's over 60 years old! Many of us in the US have gotten job offers from multiple regionals, over and over, even though we've never even applied.
Several of our pilots left for NetJets (a fractional) recently. Since Jan, they have experienced a net loss of pilots each month, even though they've been hiring full tilt. They have hundreds of planes on order.
US Majors:
Southwest just lowered their PIC turbine hour requirement from 1300 to 1000 hours. They did this because they didn't have as many applications as they wanted.
Delta started hiring this year and was shocked with how few military applicants they had (they used to hire virtually ALL military FW pilots).
Many NWA/UAL/USAir/DAL pilots are refusing to return off of furlough, because they have better jobs at the places they're at now. UAL/NWA and USAir will all be hiring MUCH sooner than they planned because many of the furloughees didn't return.
KATL Air Inc Hiring Conference:
Several years ago, a guy I know went and said there were about 1000 pilots attending. Last year, my buddy said there were 400 pilots. This year he said about 120 pilots.
Cathay and Emirates now attend EVERY major hiring conference. In the past, they would take Americans, but they never actively solicited them.
A guy I know was hired by Mesa at the conference. He said they got only 7 resumes from the whole weekend! He did NOT have a Commercial, and Mesa hired him anyway, contingent upon his getting his Commercial License. He asked about an intervew and was told it wasn't necessary.
Closing:
We found a higher time guy last Monday, interviewed him on Thursday, and he started class yesterday (Monday). 7 days from first contact to starting class. He was offered Captain slot at Pinnacle, but didn't want to fly with all the 200-500 hour FOs they've been hiring.
We had another guy with 1000 Total Time, 500+ CRJ time and a CRJ type rating coming in to fly the DC-9. He got a Captain's job in India paying $100K USD, with family housing, schooling for his children and a car and driver provided.
Now's the biggest pilot shortage since the early '60s (when US majors hired kids in high school with no time). And, barring a MAJOR change, it's only going to get worse (if you're trying to hire), or better (if you're a pilot) in the next few years.
Currently, FedEx/UPS/UAL/NWA/USAir AA aren't hiring. Within 6 months, UPS/UAL and NWA will be hiring. Within 12 months FedEx and USAir will be hiring, with AA to follow.
Wow!
cliff
DA-20 Captain
USA Jet Airlines
KYIP