FR, somewhat correct.
Granted manning levels have never been good and suspect the true state of the classic manning will show it's head on the 1st Jan 2008 when the queue forms outside the personnell office to give 3 months notice prior to HMRC taking a bite of the stipend that arrives on the 25th of the month.
However, it begs the question when was the last time you flew an a/c that burnt 15200 kg/hr at top of climb (GE classic at max wt FL 280) where by you carry 90 t to Dubai for a burn of 100 T (RR) or 110 T (GE). Add into that maint costs which are double that of the 744 (this is no pie in the sky figure, ask engineering), no depreciation costs left for the accountants to play with, corporate embarrassment with headlines of a/c depositing large peices of metal on runways, freight fowarders insisting on their frt travelling under belly on pax a/c otherwise will consign with someone else due constant delays on fleet (see manning levels and maint issues). Finally, what do you reckon a D check on the old girl will cost? Depending on what they find when they start looking behind panels then my guess is anywhere around the 5 mill usd mark, about the same as what the airframe is worth on the current market. Add to all that the arrival of how many 744 F's this year alone? (not to mention next yr ++++ ) and their issues with manning levels and it starts to look like this is a very well thought out decision for all except the FE's whose tenure will expire. When all is said and done, it will be a sad day to say goodbye to them not only because I love flying the old girl but because we have some of the best pilots and FE's on this fleet that I have ever flown with, both from a professional and social stand point.
Re softening of the market. By way of explaination, Martinair now under cut us by 40% per kg ex SYD, VS underbelly frt roughly the same. Every man and his dog has a frtr now, have a look at the ramp as every week there is a new operator in hkg alone and more often than not they are 747/744F's. We cancell frtr services (normally dragonair where they double up on cxf services) every week due payload issues, or trng sector requirements for 744F's where 2 yrs ago this was not an issue. This is no corportae fog that has been rolled in to obscure the true picture. Trust me, there is a frt downturn due an excess capacity on the market.
To respond to your statement re the new frtr a/c types, any idea what a 777ERF can do? Try a payload of 90 T to Dubai for a burn of approx 50T. Those sort of figures make you stand up and take notice. Granted it is an expensive peice of kit but any idea what depreciation costs can do to the bottom line of a balance sheet? And finally what is the cost of fuel now? Hit $ 84 usd/barrell yesterday.
Personally, I think all the above puts big question marks on 2012 for the final fleet retirement.
Shame about your last sentence, sort of demeans your arguement doesn't it?
Last edited by fire wall; 10th Jul 2007 at 19:43.