Pilot shortage?
Is there really a pilot shortage in the horizon?
A better question should be: are there going to be enough experienced pilots in the airlines’ future?
Not an easy answer. As far as the legacy airlines is concerned, I don’t think a pilot shortage is a problem in the short and mid terms. There are plenty of regional airline pilots keeping the supply side of the equation in favor of the legacies.
The regional airlines, on the other hand, are beginning to experience problems attracting experienced pilots. Notice I’m using the term "experienced" and not the term "qualified." Why? Because a pilot who completes training and passes the company’s check ride is a qualified pilot (at least in the eyes of the FAA). However, passing a check ride only indicates that a pilot meets the minimum requirements to operate the aircraft.
Here is where the regional airlines are facing problems. Pay and quality of life are so poor at the regionals that they are not able to attract experienced pilots. Those aviators with considerable flight time are staying put at corporate, fractional, and FAR 135 operators because the regionals just don’t offer a viable alternative.
So what’s left for the regionals? Well, we are seeing it now; the 600 hr. pilot who may be able to become qualified by completing the airline’s flight training but lacks real world experience; the kind of experience only acquired by "doing it."
I don’t think we will see a shortage of pilots per se, instead, we’ll continue to see a shortage of experienced pilots. A sign of the times.
P