ORAC. In Srl 1, I was with you all the way to para 5. I still can't access your link, incidentally, even using the copy and paste.
The Air Force friend you mention in para 6 is right. If we expend all our resources and effort on fighting the 2 current tribal campaigns, we won't be prepared if yer man Putin spits the dummy or the Chinese Hordes decide they want their perceived slice of the World cake. If we lose the tribal ones we will look somewhat silly, have spent a lot of resources and lost life for sod all and the natives of Iraq will wash their feet in each others blood. At ENDEX in either case, our Nation is still intact and probably retains its place in the world pecking order. If Ivan or Foo Man Choo kick off, though, we could find ourselves severely stuffed if we we're not prepared.
The comparison you offer in para 7 really isn't a good one. In 1943, the important thing was to win because the alternative would have been Nazi rule for Blighty. We are not fighting for national survival in either of the sandpits.
If we lose the "balanced force" you refer to in para 8, we take a big risk. see my para 2. We either hope to hell that Uncle Sam covers our bum for us and/or scurry into some cobbled together EU defence force. As for showing our shiny and pointy "toys", arguably it's an investment. It just may inspire people to join the Forces and keep the system running. It also show's the potential opposition that we still have the teeth to cover the bigger picture. Your para 10 somewhat trivialises what is trying to be achieved.
I would agree with you completely if the point you are trying to make is that politicians should put sufficient resources to where their mouths and egos are. If your initial point is that it is all futile if the same politicians are selling us down the river in Europe, I would also agree. Isn't it good to agree.