Good post Capt SD.
At the end of the day what will change will be...nothing. This will sadly play out
exactly as it has during every other previous pilot exodus. And Canberra knows it. The head shed will realise they have an actual or impending manning problem. The stimulus and ramifications of said exodus will be exactly,
exactly the same as the one before it, and the one before that. DP(O) will start doing field research in the form of surveys
, group emails and road shows to try and find out [slap forehead here] why so many are upping stumps and taking their bat, ball and family to play elsewhere. They will ask questions like they have no idea why people would want to leave.
They are leaving for the same reasons they always have, you bunch of mental titans! Posting turbulence, ground jobs, reduced flying with promotion, the exponential growth in **** peripheral distractions (not entirely the RAAF's fault, by the way...they are a Gummint organisation and have to give certain "training" etc).
It aint rocket surgery - a boggie has a ten year ROSO. He will
typically start out single, hungry to work, fly and party hard. By the end of his ROSO he will have accumulated the trappings of growing up...a wife, and a couple of young kids who are in, or starting school. Said former boggie will still love flying military aircraft, but will now think a couple of things:
(a) where did my hair go?
(b) where did this 10 extra kilos come from?
(c) this MOVING AROUND EVERY 2/3 years, sometimes at short notice and not where I want to go IS ****TING ME AND MY FAMILY OFF.
The lifestyle the RAAF presents him is no longer compatible with his family life or goals. The other thing often missed is that over time society has changed, and THE WIFE MAY HAVE HER OWN CAREER. Getting bounced from East Coast to West Coast to Canberra back to East Coast in a couple of years is hell on kids in school and wive's career or domestic stability. What was acceptable to former generations isn't so now. To huff and puff and dispute this fact is irrelevant - it is fact, and people will vote with their feet.
This time around if rumours are to be believed it is a "perfect storm" for an airline exodus. A perusal of these boards suggests QF are looking for 500 (500!) SOs in the next few years, with
VB and J* between them looking for probably more. Add Tiger, and Emirates and Cathay who all have massive expansion plans for those that are eligible and it doesn't look good for the posting whiteboard in DPO; particulary, as some one else observed, with all the new toys being delivered. That is exactly when you want to retain corporate knowledge, not bleed it!!!
All this was covered around the turn of the decade, but of course after 9/11 caused the airline industry to grind to a halt the RAAF was happy that the problem was solved. It's come back to bite them now!
Everyone knows what the solutions are, they are the same solutions that line pilots have been articulating for the last twenty years, which are the same solutions that successive generations of personel management have paid lip service to over and over again.
Nothing has changed, and nothing will change this time, but I would dearly love to be proved wrong.
