18 months and the airline will be ahead of the game. They've got someone trained up who is earning roughly 100k less than a similarly skilled pilot now.
Just a quick take on how this has worked out in Europe-
easyJet has a similar cadet scheme. They guarentee loans and guys go through a two year course, ending up with a frozen ATP and type rating, plus a debt of around 80 000STG!! They were to then be paid around 1000STG less than usual until the debt was paid off.
The theory (which EZ based its crewing projections on) was that they would get young, loyal, long term employees.
The realitiy was they produced qualified guys with big debts who needed to earn as much as possible to make a return on their investment.
Over half left for BA and Virgin within the first year (the pay differential more than made up for the change).
It neber ceases to amaze me that corporations will always pull out the "We need to keep the best people" card to justify enormous corporate salaries, but then try it's best to scew it's proffesstional staff.
If you want qualified people, PAY FOR THEM!!