12 Seconds, you ask some good questions. velverthammer made some good points
HERE
I don't necessarily agree with on everything, but VH raises questions.
IMHO this can be broken down into 3 parts.
1) Current pilots
Those already in the industry, once sufficient experience is gained there are a large number of jobs offshore. These pilots can trade the Oz lifestyle for income elsewhere. They have a huge range of choices
2) Retirements
Retirements, not much more can be done to extend people in the industry. If the have made wise financial & relationship choices they will leave at a time of there choosing, getting to 60 from July 1 is important, then its dealers choice.
For the rest they will stay while they can pass medicals and their checks.
3)Newbies
This is where it get interesting. There is no one defined career path & support in aviation, unlike many other professions.
Look at the law, medicine, accounting, engineering, there is support through training loans (HECS, government acts as lender of last resort), graduate training (internship) & final certification.
For the non-military pilot, lets look at the available support.
UPFRONT cost $60,000+. No discount, no commercial loan, no government assistance.
A CPL is rarely viewed outside the industry as a qualification of any value to a potential employer.
Then what, head somewhere remote to earn $30,000+ pa for a couple of years, maybe paying another $10,000~ $20,000 (Endorsements & IR) along the way for more training.
Then if everything goes right, a jet job comes up, pay another $30,000 to earn $70,000, then you end up in category one.
Not only that, generally speaking the window of opportunity to enter the industry is closed by the time you are about 23 (exceptions as always), as other pressures diminish the ability to have the selfish life that flying training & the first job demands.
So in the current climate of skills shortages, Gen Y have a huge range of choices if they commit to some training. Apprentices earn as they go, university graduates can defer HECS to have a lifestyle, then work OS for a while before returning.
I am sure many school leavers who consider aviation look at the upfront costs, the risk of actually achieving their goal & the T&C that they can expect (
VB/J* - QF is now the A-scale and closed to newbies) and decide that it just isn't worth it.
The demographics of the workforce dictate that soon the retirement rate will exceed the entry rate, aviation is no exception.
So after all that, training costs have increased sharply, whilst T&C have declined. Compared to what else is on offer to Gen Y, it appears unwilling to take the huge risk & diminishing rewards that an aviation career represents.
Once upon ago, aviation was a well paid job compared to almost all others, today this is just not the case, there are many jobs that exceed aviation. macquarie bank has 10,000 employees on an
AVERAGE renumeration of $360,000.
In the end, whatever we say or think or argue is
irrelevant, it is those willing (or unwilling) that will decide the future of aviation in Oz. The large operators need to provide some certainty
BEFORE newbies commit the $100,000, and improve T&C's.
Yet I see just the opposite.
If operators want to maintain the status quo or expand, they will need to address this issue..
The real question is can they afford not to improve T&C's. Gen Y has a choice, & they will decide the future of the industry.