I hope that the politicians are smart enough to phase things in slowly and offer a carrot rather than try to use a stick
It's my view that the above is the most likely long term scenario. EASA is on the record saying as much, but predictably they are getting a lot of opposition from the
opposite vested interests.
However, it may suprise people just how far the regulators lower down can go, winding everybody up in the process, before somebody who can see the wider picture gets up and says "actually, chaps, no, we
can't do this". Look at that recent DfT business
Let's face it, the most obvious solution is to just sod it and accept FAA licensing and certification and ICAO medicals whole, and then few people will bother to operate N-reg planes in Europe. Everybody can see this, so what's the hold-up? Job protection / careers / reputations.