I really don't think that the company can expect to get so much mileage from the 49ers. When those guys where fired it was a completely different atmosphere. A lot has changed since then.
Someone once said that a company gets the union that they deserve. If Cathay wants to head down that road, that is fine. I don't think we will be as hesitant to stand up against them in the current market environment. Jobs are a plenty right now. And not just in Asia, but in Europe, NA and the Middle East. If the company wants to get into a pissing match over pay or COS I think they will find the wind in our favor.
Most guys I've talked to aren't afraid of the consequences if we head down the "work to rule" road. I really doubt that the attrition rate when the 49er fiasco occurred was the same as what it is today. That definetely puts things in our favor.
As far as settling for 20%, ah, dude...what the hell??? You start your post with all this evidence of how far behind we are. 10% here, another 15% there, then another 15% on that, and then you say you would settle for 20% Give me a brake. I certainly hope you don't hold a negotiating position on the union.
I propose we go for productivity + inflation. Our productivity has gone up 28%, well then so should our pay...period. Not negotiable. And this shouldn't include FURTHER PRODUCTIVITY INCREASES ON OUR PART! If they want that, then we should ask for more. The productivity increase they owe us is just that; money THEY OWE US. Whatever productivity they hope to increase in these negotiations should be tacked on to that figure. If 3 man Europe gives them 10%, well then we should request another 10% on top of the current figure. That is fair and doesn't even involve a pay raise, just being paid more for working more.
There should also be a yearly increase to adjust for inflation. 3% yearly seems more than fair considering that some years, like last, were higher.
That is what I think we should be demanding in our negotiations.