Originally Posted by West Coast
Cant help but compare the time frame to a NTSB investigation of probable cause. Many, many months to years of investigation to determine probable cause vs a month.
I know the scope of a NTSB investigation may lead further into prevention by determining reccomendations to the FAA, as opposed to a clinical who what where when and why investigation. Scope aside, one side is either sandbagging it or the other is letting expediency run the show.
I think there's more than a fair bit of sandbagging simply due to the political nature of the NTSB, the bureacracies involved & the media attention. There's also a fair bit of pressure for expediency on the military side. But we can order someone to do something - harder to do on the civilian side...moreso when dealing with governmental bureaucracies. Consequently, things actually get done quicker. Neither is perfect, but I would caution against using subjective terms like "better"
While it would be naive to think the USAF Safety Investigation Board gets it right all the time, they do a pretty good job. There is an entire organization resident within the USAF (Air Force Safety Center) that is on call to respond immediately. Similarly, each unit has at least one (and usually several) specially trained mishap investigators. So the investigation is initiated extremely quickly - typically less than 24hrs.
As for the timeframe to complete - that's a recommendation. If they need longer, they get it. It's rare though. The SIB report is privileged information & not publicly releasable - intent is prevention much like NTSB - and there are always findings & recommendations laid out in the report.
Unlike high-profile NTSB investigations (TWA 800 comes to mind), there usually isn't a lot of media attention, there isn't the bureaucratic compulsion to micro-manage or determine something within 100% accuracy (beyond any doubt), and the "reasonable man" methodology is utilized to a large extent when information gaps exist - these are clearly delineated in the investigation and often left open for future investigation if applicable.
The parallel publicly releasable report done by the Accident Investigation Board is similar, but does not have the resources available to it that the SIB does. Causal findings can be grounds for administrative or judicial recourse. It is meant to be a public accounting to the families & tax-payers of what happend. Due to the differing nature of these investigations, resource availability, concern of repercussions, etc., there is occasionally different outcomes on causal findings.
It is far from a perfect system, and it doesn't mean further investigations cease. The King 56 crash off the Portland coast in '95 or so is a good case in point - the SIB concluded their official report in a normal timeframe, but several aspects of the investigation continued & the final report was ultimately updated. Most of this was due to the nature of the crash site (like TWA 800).
Back to the topic at hand - it wouldn't surprise me if the USN has a report ready in a month. I hope that it will find something to prevent another tragic mishap and will provide the families with some consolation.
RIP