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Old 13th Apr 2007, 03:30
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Swingwing
 
Join Date: Sep 2000
Location: Sydney, Australia
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I have said here previously that I don't think the buyout is a good idea - gearing up a company to this level in an industry this volatile is asking for trouble.

Still, in answer to people like QFinsider - mate, I wouldn't be totally doom and gloom just yet.

Consider this - these people are taking on a lot of debt to buy your airline. There must be something about it that tells them it's a really good business.
Whatever they do by way of capital returns, special dividends, sale of rights over aircraft production slots and so on will not be sufficient to pay down (or even necessarily service) that amount of debt.

Financial engineering of itself cannot recoup the premium paid for this company. To do that, they need to rely on continued strong performance and profitability of the core business.

Simply put, that means that they need QANTAS to continue to be a top notch, well run airline on which many people want to fly. That means that if you are anybody who is key to making that happen (whether pilot, CC, dispatcher or engineer) - you are unlikely to be out of work the day after APA takes control.

There might even be an upside - because despite what the unions say there are still plenty of back room cooks and bottle washers at QANTAS who (in my personal experience of having worked there) don't seem to add much value to the enterprise. They sit around in meetings all day and still think that the company is a government / public service enterprise. More efficiency in some of the administrative functions can only be a good thing for the sharp end IMHO.

To continue to make profit in the existing competitive landscape requires both cost control AND revenues. You already have management aggressively chasing the former - so nothing much will change there! Who knows, they might even (god forbid) look at the latter - new routes or products maybe? If there is genuinely to be a medium-term focus (which will only be proved by actions, not promises) then it could even make it possible to take a few more risks on the revenue side - something which short term shareholders on the ASX would be quick to punish.

I know that's a lot of if's there - and I repeat that I don't think the buyout is a good idea - but keep your chins up. The sky will not fall in tomorrow because there are a different set of super funds owning the airline!

SW
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