It's a goer.
Almost certain to get over the line now I think. Word has it that APA will today announce:
a) An extension to the acceptance date
b) A new acceptance threshold (70 or 75% apparently) at which the bid will go unconditional.
Given that the consortium now has around 30% acceptances, and that the hedge funds are holding around 40% (and will certainly sell) this should remove the last obstacle.
Once the syndicate acquires upwards of 70% and the bid goes unconditional, a number of other funds will probably also sell, as the liquidity in the new entity won't meet their index thresholds.
A final "cleanup" bid to the holdouts (Balanced Equity, UBS etc) can then be made off market at a higher price. This will give them the 90% they need to delist the company and they're away.
What will be interesting is to see the details (if any are released) about what new covenants have been put into the debt package to enable the lower threshold. New security for the lenders over other parts of the airline or its assets is a given - but which parts?
SW