Disraeli said “lies, damn lies, and statistics”.
What is an annual report? Is it a forecast of future growth plans or merely a snapshot of the current position that also recognizes future liabilities?
According to the 1998 annual report, we should have between 54 -79pax aircraft by now depending on how many of the 25 options were exercised. According to the 2001 annual report we should have between 63-67 pax aircraft now, again depending on how many of the 4 options were exercised. We actually had 84pax aircraft on 31/12/06.
Milly…not sure how you got 97pax a/c for last year – 102 total less 5 744BCF, less 6 744F, less 7 classic freighters gives me 84 pax aircraft – all from the AR. From this same AR I have us peaking in pax aircraft in 2009/10 at 109 then reducing from 2011 onwards. This assumes none of the 20 options are exercised and no new orders in that 5 year period.
If I look at 31/12/11, if CX exercise all 20options by then, it will have 119 pax aircraft. This is with no new orders. That is a 42% increase of almost 800 pilots for pax fleet using simple mathematics and ignoring the increase of freighter fleet from 18aircraft to 25aircraft. Big assumption that all 777s will be exercised in the next 5 years….then again, when we only had 54pax aircraft in 1998, CX increased that number to 74 in a similar 5 year period…or 32%. Amazing when you consider that in that five year period we were recovering from asian contagion and had 2 major pilot stoushes -1999 and 2001.
If no new orders are announced over the next five years, our pax fleet will be 42% bigger on 31/12/11 than it was on 31/12/06. So I think it is safe to say that anyone joining more than 3-5years ago will be looking at 10years or less to command. If I went by the 2001 AR, going from 66 pax aircraft to 63-67, I wouldn’t have been confident predicting 10 years to command back then!
So millsteam, I think it best if you and I stick to flying planes as we obviously can’t predict the future from annual reports!