Are we getting the aviation cycle mixed up with a Pilot shortage?
In the 80's there was a similar "shortage" as the airlines experienced a growth period.
At the end of the day, aviation's growth will be restricted by:
1. Airport capacity - mitigated by greater aircraft capacity eg A380, but does not create a need for more Pilots; or
2. Space in the sky - mitigated by RNP (refer above for the greater restriction); and or
3. Speed to build aircraft before the end of the current cycle.
So, will we have a Pilot shortage, or are we simply experienceing a tightening of the market as the current growth cycle reaches the top of the arc?
The Airline Manager's job is to navigate through this and ensure that their own operation has a sound policy for retention as much as attraction.