The thunder of hooves ...
There are a number of factors that the Army as a whole, and the AAC in particular, is not paying sufficient attention to on the issue of retention.
Firstly, for DE officers, the IRC was only invented in the late 90's. Before that, there were two types of officer - short service guys and lifers. However, the present generation of Capts/Majs have already twice been in a position where they have had to consider their prospects outside the military (once on conversion of SSC to IRC, and again on conversion of IRC to Reg C). The decision to stay has not always been easy, and many of my colleagues routinely express serious doubts about whether or not it was the right thing to do. These are the guys and girls who will shortly be approaching their IPPs, starting in 2008. They will have spent a great proportion of their commissioned service regarding their 16 yr points as the ultimate target, not the half-way point of a full career. The 'old guard' of SO1s and above have, largely, held Regular Commissions since they joined, or in some cases from even before that, so they cannot empathise or comprehend quite how many, or how serious we all are about our intentions to leave at the earliest opportunity. I think the Corps needs to radically re-assess just how many carrots it is going to need to keep anyone in beyond the 07, 08 and 09 Sqn Comd boards, and for each and every No 5 board thereafter. Standby for a lot of gapped SO2 and SO1 posts in the future ....
Secondly, for all ranks, the reality is that many people are marrying later, having children later, and many have partners who themselves have significant careers independent of the Army. The 'hooks' of boarding school allowance and subsidised quartering are simply not catching as many people as they did a decade ago, and many soldiers and officers will be reaching their pension points, before having become trapped by a reliance on these benefits. This trend is getting worse (from a retention perspective) and the only solution is to have a rewards package that gives cash, rather than allowances. (FRIs were an example of this trend). Again, the present generation of SO1s and above are already firmly trapped and once again, they just don't have the capacity to fully appreciate that for many of us, continued service is really only marginally more attractive than other options. The change in policy for flying pay progression (and it was a change for the worse, not just a clarification) is just another straw, but one that will break many camels' backs.
Finally, I sometimes think that the old guard (and maybe even some posters on this forum) underestimate our IQs. We all know that under the new JSP 754 regs, flying pay is immediately cut once we PVR, and so to have expected a knee-jerk response of a swathe of resignations is naive. We will go, eventually - make no mistake - but it will be on our terms, when it suits us. The real measure is not whether 2 or 3 people go this year, but whether 20 or 30 will have gone by 2008 and 2009. And the real tragedy is that these 20 or 30 won't be the natural wastage, whose loss the system is designed to cope with, or the garbage that we are glad to see the back of - it will be the best and the brightest ... the ones the Corps really needs to retain if it wants to make progress and develop.
For any CO, their influence is only temporal, but their reputation is eternal. Whether they are derided or celebrated is in our hands, and we must all make them realise that this is the issue on which they will be judged.
In the meantime - play the long game:
Write to HQ DAAvn to express your discontent.
Write to your MP.
Write to Professor David Greenaway (Chairman of the AFPRB), and every other member of the team: Robert Burgin, Alison Gallico, Dr Peter Knight CBE, Professor Derek Leslie, Neil Sherlock, Air Vice Marshal (Retired) Ian Stewart CB, Dr Anne Wright CBE and Lord Young of Norwood Green (and while you are at it, ask them to include an AAC unit on their visits for 2008).
Apply for a transfer to the RAF or the RN.
And above all, make your chain of command aware that failing to resolve this issue will cost the Corps dearly down the line. The four horsemen may not be riding across the lawn at Middle Wallop just yet, but I can hear the thunder of hooves not far off ...