Well, the optimism shown by some about the future of the A380 never fails to surprise me.
Around July last year I posted:
"Way, way back when the idea of a very large aircraft, (VLA), was first discussed both Airbus and Boeing set out their stall. Boeing did a market survey of their customers and soon realised that the required market for such an airframe simply wasn't there in commercial numbers. Airbus continued to push for a VLA project so Boeing offered them a consortium to spread the cost/risk. Airbus turned this offer down and said they would go head to head with Boeing on a VLA project.
Boeing, having properly surveyed their market, said "OK" and withdrew from the competition.
Airbus originally need 269 sold airframes to break even on the A380, this was way before delays and discounts to get the order book moving were properly considered. Right now with the extent of delay and the extent of penalty payments due, added to the extra costs of product development over and above budget then the A380 will need to sell between 500 and 600 just to break even.
The market simply isn't there. The airlines will happily accept the A380, in limited numbers, to fill a niche market, but that is all and they will want it properly supported, as per contract.
The A380 was intended as a B747 replacement with similar market share but that replacement is the B777 with all it's variants and those Airbus 340 that can compete. The A380 will never exceed fifty aircraft in any one company, unlike the B747-400 which exceeded 40 to 50 in quite a few companies.
The A380 is a dead duck and may well take Airbus down with it.
(All said before, a year or two ago, on these very same forums, no recent events could have influenced these predictions)."
I still think most of what I said then is true to-day, possibly a technical success but a hopeless commercial failure. In the days of the inception of the B747 the only competition came from the B707, the DC8, DC10 and L1011. It is a very different story today with a much larger spread of alternatives to the A380, many of them big twins.
Just my 2cents worth, once again.