FoxNiner...
U forgot one thing...
The trailing edge of the engine pylon in the crash photo was dislodged, and had bent a few degrees UP! If you see from the flap15 and flap30 landing photo, you would see that it is flush with the upper surface of the wing.
A better way would be to estimate the length of flap deployment in comparison with the length of the engine pylon trailing edge.
Now use that method when comparing all three photos, and you'd quickly see that when the aircraft crashed, the flaps were not at 30.
PK-KAR