Do I think MSE to Virginia was a go-er?
Well, with hindsight, clearly not.
I was cynical at first, but when I realised what a miniscule percentage of the population was required for a decent load factor, I thought the service would go ahead, despite my belief that MSE itself is no-go.
Clearly the takeup was woeful and it was right to cancel.
I guess the thinking was - "We've tried lo-co, that was no good - Freight is tolerable but unstable and shows no sign of returning to its 2003 peak - Short haul is stable-ish but feeble, and we're gonna lose it to Lydd eventually.......Lets give long-haul charter a go...."
Make no mistake, however, the Virginia failure is a pivotal event.
A whole raft of influential people who were giving MSE the benefit of the doubt are no longer doing so, and this will reverberate through the coming months.