True enough.
No-one can see into the future.
All you can do is take a guess based on past events, current situation, and likely developments, both on a micro and macro level.
I like to think of it in terms of percentage odds - which I appreciate is a rather intuitive and inexact science.
On the Planestation shareholders noticeboard, when faced with a wall of EUjet optimists, I gave odds of 10% for the survival of the operation.
These days I would give MSE odds of around 2%-5% to reach breakeven before Infratil's temporal deadline, or expenditure cap.
One must remember that it is not simply a question of operators USING the facility, but paying a credible commercial rate for it.
Historical precedent, coupled by statements from Infratil would suggest it is difficult to acheive this at MSE.