It is true that AF, BK and others are well down on numbers but I think the reasons are more than just airport specific. Yes, operating costs have skyrocketed but Arena's move to Redcliffe and subsequent closure prove that the company had more problems than just the operating costs at YBAF.
I see some midsize/big flight schools (like Arena) unable to evolve with changing times and by not changing fleets (Arena still had the same beat-up and high-time PA38s from the early 80's) and business direction - they are destined to fail.
Arena won't be the last midsize/big flight school to fail this year.
To their credit, some flight schools are buying new types (Tecnam, Cirrus and Diamond etc.), have changed their way of doing business and as a result are flying more than ever.
Schools that have new aircraft are seeing a huge increase in Private Students as well. The more well-heeled Citizens have no problem paying a premium for PPL training as long as they have nice new aircraft and quality instructors.
Also, there is now more career competition than ever before. The pool of local Commercial students is drying up as other professions look more attractive. The fact that HECS can fund a $100k degree and not an Aviation career doesn't help!.
In New Zealand, a similar scheme to HECS is possible for CPL students. Should the Australian govt. do the same?. In light of a possible future Pilot shortage, maybe a HECS type scheme, offering even partial funding, could be considered.
Kudos to the flight schools that are surviving and thriving.
No tears for the Aviation 'Dinosaurs' like Arena who can't see the writing on the wall.
Good Luck to the former Students and Staff of Arena. Hopefully, you all get your $$ refunded/paid out. You now have the opportunity to choose organisations with newer aircraft and a better business direction.