Here are the numbers of pilots reaching 55 from 2005 to 2012 based on a 2001 seniority list.
2005 39, 2006 43, 2007 40, 2008 34, 2009 61, 2010 68, 2011 51, 2012 54.
Thanks for that. I knew someone had to have an old list.
So CX has money....why then can it not just EXTEND these C+Ts, thus ensuring that the pilots whose commands are delayed by this act, will not be penalised financially since they will get bypass pay!
...because they are painfully cheap but it will sneak up and bite them good.
Based on our average cost of employment it is cheaper to work everyone up to around 93-96 credit hours a month than it is to employ more pilots. Maybe this is how the company will manage some of the expansion?
Many 400 Captains are already working 90 hours and it will only get worse!
I need you to explain to me that example you gave of an FO being 150 away from command. You said with RA 60 he will get his command in 2 years instead of 3-4 if we keep RA55. Did I get that right?
As you said, we are in a training limited scenario. 2007 will see 129 commands but I believe they need 150+ commands over the next 3-4 years. Also remember the success rate must improve from the 65-75% they had in 2006.
Let's say we need 150 commands per year. We currently will produce 129 commands this year which is already a 12% increase over last year. C&T is stretched and they need more people. We need a further 16% more command training over the next few years. If we lose 30% of our C&T pilots then at best we can accomplish 90 command courses which is 40 less in 2007 and 60 less than desired for 2008. Sure you can focus on Command training to still make 129 courses but then new-hires and JFO's suffer and CX needs all of them! So you say train more C&T pilots but this takes away from Command training and new-hires not to mention JFO upgrades as well. This is why CX is trying to hire as many DEFO pax as they can.
So...a pilot at #150 should only wait 1.2 years but with RA55 he could wait 1.6 years. A pilot at #300 would wait 2.1 years but could end up waiting 3.3 years.
Rememeber, you can't just train more C&T pilots because most of us see the lifestyle and will not do it.
OK, I concede that my initial estimates of delays due not factor out exactly as I suggested but there is still a delay to command over the next 3-5 years if we do not RA60. This as we have stated is only true in a training limited scenario as you suggested.
In an ideal situation, CX would make it desireable to become a C&T pilot and we conduct 200 commands a year over the next 3 years. But, CX is to cheap and doesn't have the management skill to see the writings on the wall.