Well NC, this is how I see it all!
If all C+T are 55, we can EXTEND them. But that costs the company money as then there is bypass pay.
Money CX has, pilots they don't!
How many Captains do you need to fill 40 additional cockpits? Considering most of the aircraft will be ULR flown I would say 400+. This is needed in the next 3 years just for expansion!
please tell me how 300 captains not retiring over a 5 year period
Where did you get that figure from? You're suggesting 50% of our Captains will reach age 55 over the next 5 years? I would suggest it is half that figure. Over the past 30 months I believe we have lost only 60.
Like I said, your math is simplistic and fails to adjust for variables.
So here we come...where I answer your question so you can understand this notion of time to command in a growing airline.
We have about 2000 pilots of which 650-700 are captains. If we have 150 retiring over the next 5 years then that would allow 150 new captains to upgrade. I know you get this part and I agree with you! If those 150 captains extended to age 60 that would basically delay 150 upgrades. I know you get that too!
We have more than this happening in CX. We have 40 new aircraft arriving over the next 3 years. Up to 400 new captains are required to fill these aircraft. We both know where these captains will come from but who will train them?
If we lose 150 Captains, probably 120 of them will be C&T Captains. So you say train more C&T Captains but who will train them? CX blew it 3 years ago when they should have trained not only extra C&T Captains but line Captains too.
Last year CX ran 115 Command courses and failure rates were high. I believe only 70 passed but I could be wrong. This year they want 129 courses. If the retirement age does not extend to age 60 then the course numbers will fall dramatically. A pilot only 150 numbers away could wait 3-4 years instead of 2.
Remember every course takes a C&T. They are running 502 training courses in 2007 up from 442 in 2006. If they lose 30% of the C&T staff...well I'm sure your Math Major and accountant can work those numbers!
Personally, I think CX is doing too little too late. They will either dramatically change the course syllabus for new-hires and Command training or they will have to delay acquisition to prevent parking a valuable asset.
Believe me when I say…as long as we are buying aircraft, we can’t train them fast enough. So if you think forcing the retirement of senior C&T staff will speed up your command…you are so dreadfully wrong!
