That’s a complete distortion of the truth. Do you know the demographics of the average SO joining the company? It aint 20 years old mate. It’s closer to 35. A very large proportion of those could have joined as DEFO’s on the freighter if places were available in the ports from which they were employed but they weren’t. RA60 will delay any FO and Command upgrade by at least 5 years. Simple mathematics.
I didn't say 20, I said "A low-time 20 something guy with 35+ years available" which means about 25 with 35 years available! I'm also talking about ALL S/O's not just the ones that qaulify for DEFO but couldn't find an open base to their liking.
As for your "SIMPLE" math...it's too simple and therefore not accurate. It would be accurate if there was no expansion, no hiring and upgrades relied on retirement alone. We all know that's not the case so why make such assumptions?
RA60 has the potential to cause a minor delay (a year or two) to an F/O's command to speeding it up by a couple of years depending on expansion and seniority of an individual F/O. IE. a slow-down at first but then the entire machine will speed things up.