I still think that the airliner most in touch with the market will more closely resemble the bigger B777 than the B744 or A380.
In the days of tombstone engineering men thumped their chests and said "G*dammit we make planes to fly and not to crash!" Until and unless the big twins show otherwise it seems to me that the smart money isn't on quads.
Unless tombstone engineering returns.
As regards having pods outboard or inboard Lawrence Pomeroy's dictum suggested that it was better to design for an outside blade thrown in than hope that an inside blade would be thrown out.
Chance is a terrible thing and there probably aren't that many VC10s or L1011s left to figure in disasters but I think Chorny is right to highlight differences between large and small types so long as we do not try to extrapolate data too far. But because somebody did something once don't necessarily imagine it all happened inside a clean room full of pure logic, sweetness and reason.
Predicting the future is not like laying a straight-edge on sales figure graphs or oil prices for the market can turn on the proverbial sixpence. Types such as the bigger 777s seem to me to have a better chance of survival when to quote Supermac "events, dear boy, events happen".
If God forbid one of the events was a rash of twins lost in wild and inhospitable places I'd guess quad sales might would improve but I cannot see a rehearsal of VC10/DC10/L1011 designs. I'm really sorry if you don't agree that the porrige in that pot has gone cold and short of bashing out the old arguments again I'm of no use.
You are all of course helpful to me because you're making me stop and challenge my way of thinking. If I can't convince others of the rightness of my arguments and the wrongness of theirs then either my understanding or my powers of persuasion are at fault. Subjectively and objectively I think that the medium and big twin are most likely to be the best choices for operators and manufacturers. But then I would say that, wouldn't I? I can be very stubborn.
Soon be home JT - nearly well enough to travel!
Thanks to you all for your ideas!
The "E"