queensland frog, well said.
I brought up the point about LEPs as I do see it as similar. They joined under a system that didn't give them seniority until they had been FOs for about 2 years. Then the rules changed and it became DoJ for seniority on the ASL. So not exactly the same...just pointing out that this airline has a long and distinguished history of disappointing pilots.
I actually sympathise with your case far more than you know. I know that the AOA GC are concerned and had some safeguards built in to the failed DEFO proposal.
I know that management are concerned at having 'institutional' SOs. I have heard, anecdotally, that the longer the time spent as SO the more difficult is the transition to FO. So it is in their financial best interests to keep things moving.
I didn't major in statistics, my degrees are in finance and science. I just love statistics as you can 'prove' almost anything with them;-)
I agree that if RA60 comes in without safeguards and/or a slowdown occurs, things will look bleak for SOs. I hope you are an AOA member...SOs+FOs are in the majority in the AOA so any vote on RA60 will need to be acceptable to those who it will affect most. I believe RA60 should be your greatest concern, not slowdown. CX has committed to a growth rate over the next few years that should ensure plenty of upgrades.
Heres some numbers for you mr mathematician. I think CP airbus said about 50 - 60 commands on bus this year. I assume the same for 777. That would mean say 120 commands, not counting freighters. The retirement rate varies but averages almost 60pilots per year. Assuming no pilot leaves if RA60 is introduced, the upgrade rate halves. If a slowdown occurs and we don't order any more aircraft, about 3 years from now there would be no upgrades...no one will leave until they get to 60. Then from 2012 onwards, as the first RA60 pilots hit 60, we will again need 60commands a year just to replace retirements.
If the current growth rate continues indefinitely, RA60 will delay your command by about 2 1/2 years. RA60 and or extending using current CoS terms of bypass pay, will delay commands. Anyone that says different is pulling your chain or trying to sell you a used car.
KT and AT, many of us are looking out for your best interests, as others did for me when I was a newbie. FOs and SOs outnumber CNs...so when it comes time to vote, if you are not happy, reject RA60. In the meantime remember "have the courage to change the things you can change, the serenity to accept the things you cannot change, and have wisdom to know the difference". Chill, enjoy the view.