Just as a matter of interest NC, could I ask why you brought up this point in relation to delay to upgrades?
Did you know that many of the first LEPs were working for CX for 5years+ before they actually joined the aircrew seniority list?
I'm assuming it's because the first tranche of LEP joined under the impression that they WERE going to be on the seniority list, and then this was changed once they were in the company? If that's not the reason, then I'm not sure how pertinent it is to the current thread?
A/T may be banging the drum a little more vociferously than I am, but he does have a point - the reason that the delay to SO upgrades is not a 'hot topic' is because there are only 300 of them, and most are -understandably - not prepared to rock the boat when they have only been on board for a short period of time.
I accede to the 'put up and shut up' argument; actually there is little choice. Furthermore, I accept that it's the company's responsibility to make money for the shareholders, whereas it's only their choice if they want to give me any information that might affect my life. Notwithstanding all of that, there is the feeling amongst us bottom feeders that there has been pretty major change to our career path.
I'm into numbers too NC, in fact I have a Maths Degree (pure and computing tho' no stats!), but I'm still not convinced by your long term projection. There are two points that I contest:
Firstly, your final comment about RA60 is critical. Remember, that from the bottom of the heap, we have both DEFO on the pax fleet AND RA60 as potential changing factors. Assuming that your argument is correct, and that all these DEFOs who are going directly into 'my' RHS are a good thing for me, I have to hope to hell that I get upgraded before RA60 is an issue. If not, those DEFO will still be in 'my' seat, and no-one will be upgraded for 5 years. Probably fair to assume that I'll be in the jump seat for a while longer if that's the case.
Secondly, you projection assumes no slow down in expansion or other negative factors. If however something does go wrong (and I've also been in aviation for almost 20 years - we know that things are always on the change), then the delayed SOs will be watching it unfold from... the jump seat. Take if from me, important as it is be beat the rest to command, it's just as important to progress at a reasonable rate. If nothing else, it's very very difficult to keep flying skills sharp for years with 12 hours 'hands-on' in the sim per year.
Finally, I'm not convinced by the bypass pay comments either. I'm really not sure that a profits driven airline would give their SO's the upgrade interview simply to allow them to get bypass pay. By the way, as a shareholder, I'm not sure I would want that anyway! Once those RHS are full, interviews will stop - or perhaps there will be a number of D Cat SOs!
Mr Bloggs:
Any suggestions on how we fix the problem?
Thank you for that, I almost feel as though someone above my pay grade is listening!
I think that it would be reasonable to go through the SO's that were recruited before the DEFO pax programme started, and offer all those who meet the hours requirements for DEFO pax (in seniority order). No change to seniority number - not need to resign and drop to the bottom of the pecking order. Once they have been upgraded then bring in the DE guys. Those SOs who don't have the hours will remain as SO's, but for them the impact is likely to be less in the long run, as they are almost certainly younger and at an earlier point in their aviation career. They can afford to play the long game, and still have the ultimate security of a lower seniority number.
Finally, I'm sure that some people are happy to just sit there and take the money, but I would say that the majority of CX SOs have joined to progress. To be brutally honest, the lifestyle as a SO is great, but the job...
As always, just my uneducated view on things!
KT