According to a new report from Reuters, expats are deserting Port Harcourt since the attacks by MEND and other militant groups were stepped up over a year ago. Most of the expats who had their families here with them have now sent them back home (even some with Nigerian wives and families). Most expatriates stay at home because their companies enforce a night-time curfew, or they impose one themselves. As a result a number of bars and restaurants have either closed down or are on the verge of doing so. Many expats are afraid to go out after dark and the Goodfellas karaoke bar which was a popular spot with expatriates is now almost empty most nights since a number of expatriates were abducted from there by armed men last year.
Local politicians normally arm thugs before elections to stake their claims to electoral wards, and these gangs often engage in "freelancing" of their own.
But MEND says it is not interested in politics -- it is preparing for all-out guerrilla war with Africa's largest army.
"The risks are to the downside," said Kevin Rosser of Control Risks, a security company working with several oil companies in Nigeria.
MEND argues that the people of the delta, most of whom live in poverty without access to clean water, schools, power and roads, have been cheated out of their oil wealth by the central government in league with Western multinationals.
They want to drive away the foreign workers who keep the oil flowing, halt exports and force the federal government in Abuja to renegotiate the terms of Nigeria's century-old union.
"Companies are definitely reassessing their whole posture towards Nigeria. There is real worry about the situation deteriorating and no obvious factors acting as a brake. The underlying issues are intractable," Rosser said, adding that companies were delaying investments because of uncertainty.
What happens after elections in April will be critical, analysts say.
"I think we are coming to a turning point," said Miabiye Kuromiema, director of non-government group Our Niger Delta.
"There is a chance we will survive elections without a major crisis and the next president will engage more fundamentally on the issues of the Niger Delta. If not, there will likely be a bigger challenge to oil production."
WAR
All the major political parties in Nigeria are fielding candidates from the predominantly Muslim north after eight years of rule by President Olusegun Obasanjo, a Christian southerner.
The expected power shift rouses sectarian sensibilities in the south, where minority ethnic groups such as the delta's Ijaw see a history of domination by the northern ruling elite.
The spokesman for MEND, who uses the pseudonym Jomo Gbomo, said he expected the next government to get frustrated by fruitless talks and eventually declare a state of emergency.
"A state of emergency will be declared in the Niger Delta when the north believes they are well prepared for a final assault on militants in the delta," he said in an email.
The MEND foresees a long guerrilla war, a mass exodus from the delta, the killing of expatriate workers and a total halt in oil production.
Yet with all this news, 29 hostages currently being held, almost as many kidnappings already this year as in the whole of 2006, Bristow and CHC seem to be doing little in real terms for staff (and Caverton nothing at all), except add a bit to in-country allowances. There's no real effort to pay for really good internet access so that personnel can use Skype reliably to talk to worried families, neither does either company have a helipad in the camps in which they live in Port Harcourt. The new CHC camp will not be ready for a long time and all Bristow personnel are being moved to a single location which will expose them to considerably more risk from the long journey to work. With a helipad, sick or injured employees could at least be medevaced to the Intels SOS clinic which is the only decent hospital in Port Harcourt (Bristow employees are not even members of SOS, so goodness only knows what would happen to them if they are seriously sick or injured. There's no attempt to provide improved leisure facilities for employees who are almost all confined to camp after work. CHC staff don't even have a swimming pool or a decent gym to work out the stress of the present working environment.
Except for the lucky few, many going on leave have to brave the dangerous road journey to Owerri airport as Port Harcourt international airport is closed. Local operator Arik Air has just started a 3 times daily service to the NAF Base using wet leased Dash 8's from Dutch operator Denim Air. Despite this, many companies will not allow their staff to use them until they have completed a safety audit. Quality and safety managers who sit in their nice air-conditioned offices and never have to face journeys like this, are quite happy to let employees travel with other local airlines like Virgin Nigeria and don't think to carry out a genuine 'holistic' safety audit on the entire journey, including the most dangerous part - the road journey to Owerri. I expect it'll take an expat being seriously injured, robbed, kidnapped or, God forbid, killed, before any of these bureaucrats start to think outside their narrow blinkers
. I hear that a number of employees in Bristow are now refusing to be detached to Port Harcourt and there is talk of refusing to travel to/from Port Harcourt if they have to undergo the road trip to Owerri. Bristow also has a much higher proportion of its staff on 5/1 contracts and a number of them are unhappy about still having to work 22 weeks on duty under the present conditions. many have sent their wives out until things improve and even though they're willing to still sork for 10 months a year they want to travel out more often for shorter breaks. As usual Bristow management is totally uncommunicative on any of these issues and questions on back pay, and workover pay all promised after the Eket kidnappings remain unanswered. It's amazing that pilots are still continuing to migrate from CHC to Bristow - as from next week I think there will only be one Brit pilot left working for CHC in PH.
I see little, if any improvement in the short to medium-term future and if things continue as they are oil company operations may be curtailed by the lack of crews to man the helicopter expansion they are expecting to support their new deepwater offshore drilling and development projects. After the legacy of deprivation being left to his subjects by President Obasanjo, I don't see much if any improvement after the forthcoming Presidential elections (if indeed they actually get held
). In mant ways it's surprising to see CHC still investing a huge sum of money into its NAF Base operation (esopecially in view of the past record of the Nigerian Air Force of kicking civilian operators out and confiscating all their fixed assets on the base. CHC must be spending close to $2 million on their present hangar and ramp extensions, whilst Bristow's new passenger terminal looks little bigger than that of Caverton (and is taking considerably longer than the new Caverton hangar
). I wonder if this is linked to the recent departure of their special projects manager to Exxon/Mobil? It's noticeable that CHC has a large number of helicopters less than 3 years old on its ramp area, whilst the tired old Bell 212s and S76A++s of Bristow seem to have declined in number (though it has to be said that NAF Base is one of the smaller operations Bristow has, whilst CHC have only NAF Base and a couple of ancient AS355s in Warri). It would also be interesting to find out what the average age of the pilots in both companies is and whether it's increased or decreased in the last 5 years.
Whichever company you work for, take care out there especially in the swamps, watch your own 6 o'clock and that of your fellow aviators.