galdian, I'll have a go,
It's becoming obvious that operators will have to lower their requirements to fill their need for new blood. There's ample evidence of this occuring already. The problem as I see it is not so much the reduced experience level of the candidate, but the way in which an increasing number of operators induct them.
Not that long ago, 15 to 20 years I suppose, 1,000 hours GA multi-command and you were off to the airlines. Correct me if I'm wrong but I think Qantas mins are still around the 500 mark. Prior to this a large part of QF recruitment was by way of the cadet scheme. Why then did the majority of these candidates go on to successful careers?
Why? Because from day one you were a part of the organisation. You were endorsed in house and supervised, encouraged, and supported every step of the way. At the end of your training you had been exposed to the priceless wealth of experience of a large professional airline and it's training department.
So what happens today? You are required to be in possesion of the appropriate type rating prior to being accepted for employment. So for the candidate without previous type experience, their initial training on type is not as a probationary employee, but as a client to whatever company is providing the endorsement.
For an experienced 5-10K hour pilot, this may or may not present a serious problem, but for a greenhorn you would have to ask, are they being properly equipped to meet the challenges of their line training and future line flying situations?
As for technology off-setting low experience levels, people have been manageing to screw up in even the most advanced machines for some years now, and usually by quite experienced pilots. In the aftermath of these events, quite often the focus is on systemic failures and the "culture" of the company invloved!
Mabye our brave new world LCC's need to re-invent the wheel and take greater responsibility for their future investment.
I won't however, be holding my breath.