I am certain that the UKMO errs on the side of caution. They got a lot of stick for 1987.
Some of it is silly, like the permanent moderate icing forecast for any cloud (F215).
The best forecasts one is going to get are the TAFs and I find they are usually there or thereabouts.
An instrument qualification and capability is priceless, in terms of being able to fly on a planned date/time.