You guys who fly all the time must see lots of this, cause I only fly 200 hr a year (mostly IFR) and I see enough examples of poor forcasts to make me very wary, but I generally have the luxury of carrying full fuel.
1) Before Xmas I dodged a big Cu/gestating CB north of YBOK that went on to belt the crap out of the Sunshine Coast. No mention of the possibility of CBs on any forcast!
2) Similar thing with a line of CBs between Alice and Ayers Rock middle of last year.
3) My personal favourite - having to fly an intrument appr into an aerodrome that has a CAVOK forcast!
R