I'm sorry SM4 Pirate but with respect, some of the things you said really don't make sense at all and indicate that you continue to miss the points I am making.
Firstly you said:
What if the chances don't increase?
then there will be no TS...
So you consider a 20% chance of something happening as really a zero chance do you?
If you willy nilly post every % say 10 and above on a TAF then for the 8 times a year a TS hits an aerodrome, it's forecast 250 times...
I'm sure the meteorologists don't consider their probability estimates to be made "willy nilly".
I don't care how many times a PROB10, PROB20, PROB30, or PROB40 appears on a TAF. And why should anyone else care? If it is the honest estimate of the meteorologist, so be it.
It's called hazard alerting, if you are within 1 hours flight time as an IFR you gt tld about the amended conditions, if VFR it will be braodcasy on area freq's; and flightwatch have all the info available at the click of a mouse; call them.
Are you suggesting a flight departing WSSS will have the latest on BN on departure and take that as the only time the WX is checked?
No. Of course not. You are missing the point again. I am not suggesting that the flight crew will not receive weather updates along the way. Of course they will. But once they depart, they are stuck with the fuel they have in the tanks. For a commercial operation such as a major airline, there is often the commercial pressure to carry the least amount of fuel, especially if that fuel will offload revenue freight or pax.
Now if the crew at flight planning see 10PROB INTER TS, they can at least determine weather or not they will carry 30 mins holding fuel or not. They may decide to negotiate with the weight and balance people as to what can be left behind for the next flight (that does not have to deal with the PROB10 INTER TS or simply has a better load capacity such as a B767 vs B737) and what must be carried on that particular flight. The INFORMED decision can be made as to the cost of carrying holding fuel or diversion fuel verses not carrying the fuel and risking a PROB10, or PROB20.
If a PROB10 or PROB20 is increased in an TAF AMD to PROB30, PROB40, or PROB 50 (which is simply included in the TAF without the "PROB50") then that would come as no surprise to anyone. Those that are forced to divert due insufficient fuel would have taken the INFORMED risk of not carrying the fuel and lost. But if the PROB10 or PROB20 is not included, well then it does come down to "experience" or more likely luck.
CFPlnr's post includes exactly the kind of information I am talking about.
10% chance of thunderstorm activity within 5nm of the airport 14/22Z.
I honestly don't understand why anyone would argue against including this information in a TAF.
Gliderboy also said:
pps mate you like the quote button don't you
Just trying to keep the conversation legible.
